These are Santa Clarita Real Estate statistics and things you should be aware of…for November 2009! The numbers and analysis below are reflective my opinion only, of our market as of today, November 19, 2009.
Here is what stands out to me:
1) It's tough to sell a home in Agua Dulce right now for some reason (241 avg days on market!?). Ok, that was the ice breaker…the boring stats and insight will follow.
2) Of the "Active" listings for sale in the Santa Clarita Valley, 36% (avg.) of those are short sales.
3) Of the homes for sale that are "In Escrow" in the Santa Clarita Valley, 56% (avg.) of those are short sales.
4) Of the homes for sale that are "In Escrow" in the Santa Clarita Valley, the avg. days on market for these is 97. This figure includes short sale homes that are "In Escrow."
5) Of the homes for sale that are "In Escrow" in the Santa Clarita Valley that are NOT short sales, the avg. days on market for these is just 52 (it's just 39 without including Agua Dulce numbers – thanks Agua Dulce).
6) Homes are flying off the shelf in Saugus! The days on market is the lowest.
7) The avg. list price of a home in escrow thats not a Santa Clarita short sale, is $412,153. That number would be $384,735 without Agua Dulce figured in. The avg list price of homes that are active, and have not entered into escrow yet, including short sale listings, is $584,737 (and yes that number does include Agua Dulce). Bottom line, the less expensive homes are selling…which is not a news flash.
As of today, there are a total of 658 homes for sale in Santa Clarita. And there are 1,066 homes in escrow. A bit unbalanced. Great for sellers, bad for buyers. But read on buyers…there is still some good news for you in the numbers, and beyond the numbers. As you can see below, short sales are such a large part, % wise, of our inventory. The inventory is so low, that despite the general drawbacks of short sales, buyers are still writing offers on these types of homes, and they (the short sales) have become a majority of the type of inventory that's in escrow. The bad part about all of those short sales in escrow…is that a majority of them will not close escrow as short sales. At least not until the banks/lenders/corporations figure out a better process for streamlining the short sale approval process (which could be soon). MOST of the short sales "in escrow" are NOT approved short sales. They simply received an offer, the listing agent marked it as being "in escrow" and an approval from the lien holders is being sought after by the seller and their listing agent.
The homes that are selling the quickest, often times within days of hitting the market, are bank owned foreclosure sales, and regular good old standard sales where an owner has equity. Look at the STARK contrast in stats between "Avg. Days On Market Homes In Escrow" and "Avg. Days On Market Homes In Escrow But NO Short Sales".
With so little available for sale, and so much of the inventory in escrow, where is the good news for Santa Clarita home buyers? The good news for you buyers is that prices are incredibly low and may continue to stay low for at least another year, and possibly even decrease a bit more, in varying areas of Santa Clarita. Also, interest rates are at historic lows, FHA loans are flexible and have a low entry barrier, there is an $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit that got extended until April 30, 2010, and now even existing homeowners have the possibility of taking advantage of a $6,500 tax credit. Back to price softening…how much they decrease, will depend on how many more foreclosures (not listings – but foreclosure listings) hit the market. Why foreclosure listings? Because these are almost always priced aggressively. The nature of how those are priced, will keep prices from rising in general/on the avg. And if there is anything close to another "flood" of foreclosures, prices will weaken a bit more, even if there is pent up demand ready to absorb the "wave". Again – because the nature of foreclosures is such that they tend to be in bad shape and priced aggressively to sell fast, thereby affecting neighborhood values negatively (from a homeowners perspective).
If banks get "better" at approving short sales, improve various loan modification programs, and all options are looked into before a homeowner is foreclosed on….then we will likely continue to see just a trickle of bank owned foreclosures hitting the market, and the real estate market in Santa Clarita would likely be considered at a bottom (at least by this author), and prices in some SCV communities could even begin to rise in tiny measurable amounts.
Homeowners with equity: if you are interested in selling soon, now is the time. You have very little competition (658 homes for sale) and you can get top dollar – quickly!
Buyers: if you have to buy now, you will need patience. There is immense competition for homes in Santa Clarita right now. You need, more than ever, a dedicated full time agent/team working on your side, and they must have their pulse on the market. It's common to write several offers on several homes, before finally getting an offer accepted. A good agent can help you minimize this process, and make it less painful, or even painless. But please be prepared to write your very best offer. Low ball offers aren't working too well right now. I wish there was a stat on that! If you can wait to buy several months, maybe – JUST MAYBE – even a year…thats not a bad thing, except for the fact that you may miss out on the tax credit and or you could face higher loan interest rates down the line. But don't fear the prices, they won't be rising significantly, if at all, for at least a little while. Tough decision. I know.
Enough of this foggy crystal ball…check out the numbers yourself and as always, check back with our blog often for the skinny on SCV RE!
| Castaic | Stevenson Ranch | Newhall | Valencia | Saugus | Canyon Country | Acton | Agua Dulce | |
| Total Listings | 135 | 104 | 205 | 451 | 239 | 488 | 52 | 46 |
| # Active Listings | 54 | 33 | 92 | 157 | 79 | 180 | 30 | 35 |
| # Homes In Escrow | 81 | 71 | 113 | 294 | 160 | 308 | 22 | 11 |
| % Active Listings = Short Sales | 46% | 52% | 14% | 41% | 47% | 41% | 33% | 17% |
| % Escrows = Short Sales | 62% | 63% | 56% | 66% | 61% | 64% | 50% | 27% |
| Avg. # Days On Market Active Listings | 118 | 82 | 131 | 81 | 74 | 98 | 94 | 241 |
| Avg. List Price Active Listings | $525,126 | $563,563 | $572,197 | $602,306 | $458,722 | $496,267 | $517,227 | $942,491 |
| Avg. Days On Market Homes In Escrow | 101 | 101 | 95 | 101 | 78 | 85 | 77 | 140 |
| Avg. List Price Homes In Escrow | $340,720 | $466,380 | $317,390 | $397,110 | $358,512 | $299,074 | $389,689 | $559,054 |
| Avg. Days On Market All Homes In Escrow But NO Short Sales | 37 | 61 | 41 | 48 | 27 | 30 | 32 | 145 |
| Avg. List Price All Homes In Escrow But NO Short Sales | $334,836 | $473,621 | $313,538 | $440,587 | $356,239 | $348,195 | $426,135 | $604,075 |
Feel free to comment or email us. To contact The Robert and Brian Team by phone, call us at (661) 964-1760.
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